It's happened again. Iowa is sitting behind teams that they beat. Now, if Iowa had a worse record, then that would be understandable. But why you would rank Penn State and Wisconsin!? ahead of Iowa is beyond me.
Let's see...just looking quickly at a couple of key games. Iowa at Penn State: Iowa wins. Iowa at Wisconsin: Iowa wins. Ohio State at Penn State: Ohio State wins BIG. Wisconsin at Ohio State: Ohio State wins BIG. Iowa at Ohio State: Ohio State barely wins in overtime. So, all 4 of these Big Ten teams have 2 losses...and what is the logical order? It's pretty clear to me it should be Ohio State and Iowa first and second respectively, then PSU and Wisconsin.
Iowa comes in a #15 in the AP poll (OSU #9, PSU #13, Wisc #17) and is the same (#15) in Coaches poll (OSU #8, PSU #12, Wisc #14). Iowa is the lowest ranked BSC team with only 2 losses by the coaches. The only rational explanation I can come up with is that they didn't want to move Iowa up with a loss (the Hawks were #15 last week in the AP).
The BCS standings should be out later tonight, so it will be very interesting to see where Iowa falls. They just need to be in the top 14 to be eligible for a BCS at large bid and that seems likely at this point (I think the computers will still like Iowa well enough).
Archive page 96
Well this sucks...
This sucks on multiple levels. Not only did the Hawkeyes lose in overtime, but I didn't even get to see it! I had big plans to be watching it on ESPN360 right now, but stupid thing is blacked out! SCREW YOU ESPN360!! Now I have to wait until freakin' Wednesday to watch a replay on TV, which they will probably cut out a lot to fit an OT game into 3 hours. Blargh! Mad.
I just saw the score and haven't read much about it yet, but it sounds like it was an exciting game and that Vandenberg played well. But who knows...not me. So anyway, I'll get back to you after I actually watch the game. (If anyone has a tape that they want to get to me in Ankeny...or a good method to watch online that is not EStuPidN360, let me know).
I just saw the score and haven't read much about it yet, but it sounds like it was an exciting game and that Vandenberg played well. But who knows...not me. So anyway, I'll get back to you after I actually watch the game. (If anyone has a tape that they want to get to me in Ankeny...or a good method to watch online that is not EStuPidN360, let me know).
Fight For the Rose Bowl
This is a very big game with a Rose Bowl bid on the line. The seniors from the class of 2005 have been waiting for this chance and now it's their last. Vandenberg is getting his first collegiate start and has to be feeling the pressure. But this is the last away game of the year and the road has been the Hawkeye's focus and friend. And with everything on the line, anything could happen.
The need to know:
What: #10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
When: 2:30 PM, November 14, 2009
TV: ABC
Quick Thoughts:
The need to know:
What: #10 Iowa at #11 Ohio State
Where: Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
When: 2:30 PM, November 14, 2009
TV: ABC
Quick Thoughts:
- Defense, defense, defense - These are the 2 best defenses in the Big Ten so a low scoring game will be likely. Both create a lot of turnovers and keep points off the board. If Iowa has any shot at winning the D will need to be lights out...a defensive touchdown wouldn't hurt either.
- Injuries - The big one for Iowa is Stanzi...obviously. Ohio State is pretty healthy, but their starting kicker, Aaron Pettrey, is out and the backup is just 2/4 on field goals this year. If it is close and the game is put in the hands (more like the feet) of the kickers...advantage Iowa.
- Conservative coaching - "Tressel ball" vs. Ferentz ball? (Whatever you would call Ferentz's philosophy). Both of these coaches are known for their "conservative" brand of football. It's all field position, ball security, limiting mistakes, etc... Hopefully this will help keep the game close and give Iowa a chance to win.
Iowa vs. Ohio State: Numbers
This week is pretty straight forward. Two of the best defense will meet to battle for a trip to Pasadena. Points will be hard to come by as both offensive are mediocre. This game could come down to special team play, which could actually be a good thing.
Iowa Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
Ugh. To say the Buckeye Defense has an enormous advantage over the Hawkeye Offense is quite the understatement. Looking at the numbers, Iowa's offense was struggling before Stanzi went down. And now with Vandenberg (nothing against him) at the helm, it really does look hopeless, but I'll try to stay optimistic.
Ohio State doesn't give up yards, points, first downs, or really anything easily. The run defense is one of the best in the country and even though Robinson may see some time, it is unrealistic that Iowa will be able to run the ball consistently. The key will be to run the ball well enough to get the linebackers to bite on play action, hopefully freeing up Moeaki or maybe even a receiver down the field.
Like, Iowa though, the Buckeye secondary has been very good against the pass and is very opportunistic taking advantage of turnovers. Vandenberg will have a very tough time against this defense and will need to be decisive and interception free.
Overall Advantage: um...Ohio State
Iowa Defense vs. Ohio State Offense
It is pretty clear what Iowa needs to do here...force Terrell Pryor to throw the ball. Besides the stat for rushing yards, you see a lot of Hs up there as Ohio State's offense has been quite average while Iowa's defense has been very good.
Ohio State does have a decent run game, though a lot of those yards have come off of Pryor scrambling on pass plays. None of the running backs pose a huge threat and the line isn't spectacular, so Clayborn and Co. will have their opportunity to make plays. The key will just be to contain Pryor (the leading rusher).
If Iowa can force the Buckeyes into passing situation, then good things could happen. Really OSU's only successful passing play this year has been to go deep to Posey (or Sanzenbacher). Iowa will need to get pressure on Pryor and limit the big plays. If they do that, then there's a good chance of keeping the game close. A defensive touchdown would be huge.
Overall Advantage: Iowa
Iowa Special Teams vs. Ohio State Special Teams
*OSU's starting kicker was hurt, these are just the backup's numbers.
**The backup only has 4 kicks, which isn't enough to show up on the official NCAA stat rankings.
Considering that both defenses look like they have a big advantage over the offenses, the special teams will be a major factor. Ohio State has broken a couple of long returns, so Iowa will need to cover well. Hopefully Sandeman will be back to alleviate some of the trouble Iowa has had on punt returns the past couple of weeks. If not, Sash did okay.
Also, big advantage that Iowa has an experienced kicker in Murray. Ohio State is using its backup kicker who is just 2/4 on the year on field goals. With OSU's poor red zone efficiency, hopefully Iowa can keep them off the board by forcing field goals (that have a good chance of being missed).
Overall Advantage: Iowa (return game would go to Ohio State, but the kicker issue could be really big in a close game)
Prediction: I haven't picked Iowa to lose a game all year, but I have a hard time finding a win this week. I think the defense will keep the game close, but Pryor will make a play with his feet on a scramble late in the game that puts the game away. The offense will likely struggle against Ohio State's great defense, so I'd be surprised to see more than 10 points.
Realistic: Iowa 10 - Ohio State 17
Optimistic: Iowa 16 - Ohio State 14
Iowa Offense vs. Ohio State Defense
| Category | Iowa Offense | Ohio State Defense | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Rushing Yards | 119.20 | 94 | 85.40 | 3 | BBBB |
| Passing Yards | 230.60 | 47 | 168.70 | 11 | BB |
| Passing Efficiency | 123.57 | 79 | 94.64 | 6 | BBB |
| Sacks | 2.20 | 74 | 2.70 | 23 | BBB |
| Total Yards | 349.80 | 82 | 254.10 | 6 | BBB |
| Scoring | 24.10 | 86 | 11.20 | 4 | BBBB |
| Turnovers | 21 | 97 | 25 | 5 | BBBB |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 41.50 | 47 | 31.54 | 12 | BB |
| Red Zone % | 86 | 29 | 81 | 52 | H |
Ugh. To say the Buckeye Defense has an enormous advantage over the Hawkeye Offense is quite the understatement. Looking at the numbers, Iowa's offense was struggling before Stanzi went down. And now with Vandenberg (nothing against him) at the helm, it really does look hopeless, but I'll try to stay optimistic.
Ohio State doesn't give up yards, points, first downs, or really anything easily. The run defense is one of the best in the country and even though Robinson may see some time, it is unrealistic that Iowa will be able to run the ball consistently. The key will be to run the ball well enough to get the linebackers to bite on play action, hopefully freeing up Moeaki or maybe even a receiver down the field.
Like, Iowa though, the Buckeye secondary has been very good against the pass and is very opportunistic taking advantage of turnovers. Vandenberg will have a very tough time against this defense and will need to be decisive and interception free.
Overall Advantage: um...Ohio State
Iowa Defense vs. Ohio State Offense
| Category | Iowa Defense | Ohio State Offense | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Rushing Yards | 118.70 | 38 | 190.70 | 23 | B |
| Passing Yards | 173.00 | 16 | 183.10 | 98 | HHHH |
| Passing Efficiency | 94.30 | 4 | 129.80 | 57 | HHH |
| Sacks | 2.10 | 52 | 1.50 | 44 | - |
| Total Yards | 291.70 | 14 | 373.80 | 62 | HH |
| Scoring | 15.90 | 13 | 30.30 | 35 | H |
| Turnovers | 26 | 2 | 16 | 56 | HHH |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 36.67 | 43 | 41.43 | 50 | - |
| Red Zone % | 88 | 98 | 74 | 102 | - |
It is pretty clear what Iowa needs to do here...force Terrell Pryor to throw the ball. Besides the stat for rushing yards, you see a lot of Hs up there as Ohio State's offense has been quite average while Iowa's defense has been very good.
Ohio State does have a decent run game, though a lot of those yards have come off of Pryor scrambling on pass plays. None of the running backs pose a huge threat and the line isn't spectacular, so Clayborn and Co. will have their opportunity to make plays. The key will just be to contain Pryor (the leading rusher).
If Iowa can force the Buckeyes into passing situation, then good things could happen. Really OSU's only successful passing play this year has been to go deep to Posey (or Sanzenbacher). Iowa will need to get pressure on Pryor and limit the big plays. If they do that, then there's a good chance of keeping the game close. A defensive touchdown would be huge.
Overall Advantage: Iowa
Iowa Special Teams vs. Ohio State Special Teams
| Category | Iowa Special Teams | Ohio State Special Teams | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Kick Returns | 20.62 | 84 | 24.14 | 26 | BBB |
| Punt Returns | 7.77 | 79 | 8.60 | 67 | B |
| Net Punting | 38.36 | 19 | 36.87 | 37 | H |
| Field Goal % | 71.4 | 57 | 50.0* | 100+** | HH |
*OSU's starting kicker was hurt, these are just the backup's numbers.
**The backup only has 4 kicks, which isn't enough to show up on the official NCAA stat rankings.
Considering that both defenses look like they have a big advantage over the offenses, the special teams will be a major factor. Ohio State has broken a couple of long returns, so Iowa will need to cover well. Hopefully Sandeman will be back to alleviate some of the trouble Iowa has had on punt returns the past couple of weeks. If not, Sash did okay.
Also, big advantage that Iowa has an experienced kicker in Murray. Ohio State is using its backup kicker who is just 2/4 on the year on field goals. With OSU's poor red zone efficiency, hopefully Iowa can keep them off the board by forcing field goals (that have a good chance of being missed).
Overall Advantage: Iowa (return game would go to Ohio State, but the kicker issue could be really big in a close game)
Prediction: I haven't picked Iowa to lose a game all year, but I have a hard time finding a win this week. I think the defense will keep the game close, but Pryor will make a play with his feet on a scramble late in the game that puts the game away. The offense will likely struggle against Ohio State's great defense, so I'd be surprised to see more than 10 points.
Realistic: Iowa 10 - Ohio State 17
Optimistic: Iowa 16 - Ohio State 14
Feeling Better
I've been sick the last couple of days, but I'm feeling better today. So hopefully sometime tonight after work I'll be up for posting something with actual content. This week has been slow for the blog in terms of traffic too, following the loss. I guess nobody wants to read about losing...me included.
The good news though, is that the Hawkeyes are feeling better too. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl this week and 3 players should be back to some degree. Robinson, Greenwood, and Sandeman, who have all been out since getting hurt against Michigan State, are all expected to contribute this weekend.
In other site news...I'm going to be trying something new with Links For Iowa. I'm trying to make it automated from my Delicious account. We'll just have to see how it goes.
The good news though, is that the Hawkeyes are feeling better too. They still have a shot at the Rose Bowl this week and 3 players should be back to some degree. Robinson, Greenwood, and Sandeman, who have all been out since getting hurt against Michigan State, are all expected to contribute this weekend.
In other site news...I'm going to be trying something new with Links For Iowa. I'm trying to make it automated from my Delicious account. We'll just have to see how it goes.