Archive page 95

Senior Day

Saturday will be the final regular season and home game that 17 seniors will play in a Hawkeye jersey (and likely the last football game for most of them). Of course there is still the bowl game, and Angerer, Moeaki, Edds, and Calloway all have pretty good shots at getting drafted. Many of these seniors come from the highly touted 2005 recruiting class, and though they've previously been thought to be a "bust," now they we can look back at their whole career and I think we can all agree that it has culminated into something pretty special.

The Seniors:
  • Pat Angerer
  • Kyle Calloway
  • Joe Conklin
  • Dan Doering
  • A.J. Edds
  • Rafael Eubanks
  • Chad Geary
  • Bryce Griswold
  • Taylor Herbst
  • Andy Kuempel
  • Travis Meade
  • Tony Moeaki
  • Jayme Murphy
  • Dace Richardson
  • Chris Rowell
  • Kyle Spading
  • Trey Stross
Highlights:
  • Trey Stross hauls in a "hail mary" from Jake Christensen that is tipped by an Indiana defender for a touchdown as time expires in the first half.
  • Dace Richardson starts against Northern Iowa after missing most of the previous 2 years and basically being told his career was over.
  • After missing a couple of weeks with an ankle injury, Tony Moeaki makes his return for homecoming against Michigan and has 2 huge TD catches.
  • Pat Angerer picks off a pass from Penn State's Clark late in the game. The ensuing return has one of the biggest hits I've ever seen.
There have got to be more highlights (I'm just to tired to think of them right now. Add your own in the comments!

Iowa vs. Minnesota: Numbers

It's time again to look at the statistics for the upcoming game. Things are pretty straight forward this week. When Iowa has the ball, it will be a pretty even match up between two mediocre units. But when Minnesota has the ball, Iowa's defense should have the huge upper hand.

Iowa Offense vs. Minnesota Defense

CategoryIowa OffenseMinnesota DefenseAdvantage
StatRankStatRank
Rushing Yards114.4598
155.0974
M
Passing Yards230.8248
226.7371
H
Passing Efficiency
123.4482
125.5259
M
Sacks2.0968
1.4594
H
Total Yards345.2787
381.8279
-
Scoring24.0984
25.7370
M
Turnovers24107
2222
MMMM
3rd Down Conversion40.7652
47.34111
HHH
Red Zone %84
48
80
44
-

This is pretty close across the board and the story is pretty clear...both teams are not very good. Besides turnovers and 3rd down conversion, Iowa's offense and Minnesota's defense rankings are nearly the same....all ranking in the 70-90 range.

Iowa's running game has not been extremely effective this year, but Wegher and Robinson should both be playing this week (the tandem hasn't been together since Michigan State). Minnesota has given up lots of yards on the ground and Iowa's offensive line should be able to get a good push against the Gopher front 4.

The Gopher front 4 is not very good, and for the first time in a long time
(maybe all season) there isn't really an elite defensive lineman that Iowa has to worry about. Minnesota does not get great pressure on the QB, which should mean good things for Vandenberg.

The one thing Iowa has to look out for (and that has doomed them in the losses) is turnovers. Minnesota has been able to stay close in games, despite their poor defense, by creating turnovers and Iowa has been all too cavalier with the ball.

Overall Advantage: Even (Maybe Iowa has a slight edge if the offensive line can play well)

Iowa Defense vs. Minnesota Offense

CategoryIowa DefenseMinnesota OffenseAdvantage
StatRankStatRank
Rushing Yards128.7343
102.09107
HHH
Passing Yards165.7310
202.3678
HHH
Passing Efficiency
96.026
120.2286
HHHH
Sacks2.1052
3.09110
HHH
Total Yards294.4511
304.45112
HHHHH
Scoring16.911723.5588
HHH
Turnovers268
24107
HHHH
3rd Down Conversion37.7252
37.4175
H
Red Zone %88
99
8
26
MMM

This is probably the most lopsided match up of the year.
Minnesota's offense is just plain bad and Iowa has one of the best defenses in the country. It all starts along the line for both teams.

Minnesota's offensive line has been very poor this year. They are unable to create holes in the run game and give up over 3 sacks a game. When he has time, Weber has been okay at quarterback, but does not put up any numbers that would scare Iowa's stout pass defense.

Iowa's defensive line should be able to create all sorts of problems for Minnesota. The wildcat has worked okay against Iowa so I wouldn't be surprised if Gray gets a lot of touches in this game.

Minnesota has been good in the red zone, but it is not likely that they will see much time on Iowa's side of the field. If Minnesota is able to put up more than 10 points I would be very surprised.

Overall Advantage: Iowa by a large margin

Iowa Special Teams vs. Minnesota Special Teams

CategoryIowa Special TeamsMinnesota Special TeamsAdvantage
Stat
RankStatRank
Kick Returns23.11
41
23.4138
-
Punt Returns 7.77
79
15.6716
MMM
Net Punting 38.10
18
39.269
-
Field Goal %69.6

61
78.6
36
MM

Both teams do a very good job punting and covering punts. Iowa will need to watch out for the Minnesota punt return...though they've only returned 6 punts all year, they have been big returns.

I thought Murray would be an advantage last week and it turned out the OSU's backup kicker made the game winning field goal while Murray missed a 22-yarder. So this week I going with Minnesota having an advantage in the kicking game. Though I don't think Minnesota will get in field goal range a lot, and I think Iowa will be scoring touchdowns.

Overall Advantage: Minnesota...very slightly

Prediction: Iowa may not do a whole lot on offense this game, but it won't matter. The defense will completely shut down Minnesota to the point that a 24 point effort by the offense may look like a blowout.

Iowa 24 - Minnesota 3

Recruit Roundup: Playoffs and More 3

An almost perfect week for Hawkeye commits as their teams go 7-1. The 3 Iowa boys all advance in the playoffs to the state title games in their respective division. Marcus Coker and Mike Hardy will also be playing for championships this week.

Iowa High School Playoffs:

James Morris: Solon 35 – North Fayette 0
North Fayette came into the game with the best rushing attack in the state, averaging over 400 yards per game on the ground. They came out of the game with a lackluster 87 total yards as Solon completely shut them down. Solon, on the other hand, continued its romp through Class 2A and scored all 35 points in the first half. Morris had 208 yards on 12 carries and even threw a 71-yard TD. He added 3 rushing touchdown himself, including 2 of over 80 yards. Solon moves on to face Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley for the 2A championship.

A.J. Derby: City High 21 – CR Xavier 3
City High gave up a lot of yards on the ground, but were able to shut down the passing game and came away with 2 interceptions holding Xavier to only a field goal. Derby had a monster game. He was 12 of 18 passing for 161 yards and a touchdown. He ran in a 16 yard touchdown in the 3rd quarter. And, he intercepted a pass on defense in the endzone that kept Xavier from going ahead when the score was just 7-3. City High will play Marshalltown for the Class 4A Title.

Matt Hoch: Harlan 42 - Carroll 7
After falling behind 7-0 in the first quarter, Harlan started to pound the ball and had great success. Four Cyclones ran the ball for over 40 yards and they had 4 rushing TDs in a semifinal victory over Carroll in the UNI Dome. Hoch was a big contributer with 10 carries for 44 yards and 2 short touchdowns. Harlan will play Pella for the 3A Title.

Other Commits:

Marcus Coker: DeMatha 35 - Gonzaga 0
DeMatha put in another dominating performance and moved to 11-0 and 1 game away from a WCAC conference championship. Coker led the way with 142 yards on 17 carries. He also had 2 touchdowns. DeMatha will play Good Councel on Saturday for the title.

Mike Hardy: Kimberly 42 – Merrill 14
Kimberly came out firing and quickly went ahread 21-0 in the first quarter over Merrill in the semifinals. The game was never close again as the Papermakers sealed a spot in the championship game for the 3rd straight year. Kimberly will play Waunakee on Friday for the Division 2 Championship in Wisconsin.

Stephane N’goumou Milford 0 - Navy JV 5
Milford Academy finished up its season with a loss against the Navy JV team. N'goumou finished the year with just 1 catch for 7 yards.

Carl Davis Stevenson 38 - Detroit Southeastern 32
Stevenson threw for 488 yards in a Division 1 regions finals victory over Detroit Southeastern. They were able to overcome 4 turnovers by continuing to throw it aggressively down the field. The Titans will face Clarkston in the semifinals this Saturday.

Donovan Johnson Martin 50 - Haltom 6
Martin put in a dominating defensive performance in the first round of the 5A Division 1 playoffs in Texas. Haltom only gained 44 yards and gave up more sacks (8) than they gained first downs (just 5). Martin will face off against Odessa Permian on Saturday.

Note: Some players are already done for the season so are not included in this roundup.

Previous Recruit Roundups:

BCS Bound?

Everybody has their different take on the teams that will be in the BCS bowls this year. The picture is definitely becoming more clear each week, and at this point it looks like Iowa's inclusion is a real possibility. So here is my take:

BCS Top 14:
  1. Florida
  2. Alabama
  3. Texas
  4. TCU
  5. Cincinnati
  6. Boise State
  7. Georgia Tech
  8. LSU
  9. Pittsburgh
  10. Ohio State
  11. Oregon
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. Iowa
  14. Penn State
Pac-10: 1 team
The Pac-10 is still wide open as there are 4 teams (Oregon, Stanford, Oregon State, and Arizona) still with a shot at a championship. It will most likely be Oregon, but whoever it is will be the lone Pac-10 representative in the BCS. The runner up will at best be 9-3, and this year that will not be good enough.

SEC: 2 teams
Florida and Alabama have already locked up their places in the SEC championship game and the winner will get the automatic bid, but the loser will almost certainly be an at large pick. The only scenario I don't see this happening is if Alabama loses to Chattanooga (yeah right...), Auburn, and Florida. LSU could get the 2nd SEC place as long as they win out. So, basically there is no way SEC only gets 1 team.

Big 12: 1 or 2 teams
Unless Texas has a complete meltdown the next two weeks against Kansas and Texas A&M, the Longhorns are in and likely in the title game. There are 2 scenarios that the Big 12 could get a 2nd team in. First, Texas loses in teh B12 title game. The North champ would get the auto bid, and Texas at 12-1 would still be picked. Second, Oklahoma State could win out (including a win at Oklahoma) . At 10-2 the Cowboys might be an attractive pick for the BCS.

ACC: 1 or 2 teams
There is really only 1 worthy team in the ACC and that's Georgia Tech. But with a conference title game there is always the chance of an underdog (in this case, most likely Clemson) getting the automatic spot. So the question would be, if Georgia Tech loses in the ACC title game and finishes 11-2, would they get get an at large spot?

Big East: 1 or 2 teams
Cincinnati is in the driver's seat in the Big East and may still have a shot at the national title (crazier things have happened). The match up against Pittsburgh in 2 weeks will decide the conference champion. If Cincinnati wins, then Pitt could still be 10-2 and would likely be in the top 14. If Pitt wins, Cincinnati will likely be 11-1 and I think would be a very attractive pick for the BCS. And, a team nobody is talking about, Rutgers even has a chance to finish 10-2 if they win out and could work its way into the mix (though I don't think it's likely).

Non-BCS: 1 or 2 teams
TCU and Boise State have both survived their toughest tests and should both finish undefeated and in the top 10. It looks like TCU at this point will be the automatic nod, but Boise State, considering their success in past BCS games, would be an attractive at large choice.

Big Ten: 1 or 2 teams.
Saving the best for last... Ohio State has things locked up, but it's likely that Penn State, Wisconsin, and Iowa will all finished 10-2 and all be in the top 14 in the BCS. If there is a spot open, then who do they take? From a most-deserved perspective, Iowa would be the obvious choice with wins over the other 2. Of course though, that doesn't matter. Penn State, with its huge fan base, could be an option. And even Wisconsin, though less likely, has good traveling fans.

Who is it?
If you're counting, that's 7 spots that are locks and another (the SEC runner-up) that is a virtual lock. So, there are just 2 spots open for Iowa to play in a BCS bowl for just the second time. Here's how I see the pecking order to fall (minus Iowa):
  1. Texas (12-1): lost in B12 title game
  2. Cincinnati (11-1): lost to Pittsburgh
  3. Penn State (10-2): win out
  4. Boise State (12-0): win out
  5. Oklahoma State (10-2): win out
  6. Georgia Tech (11-2): lost in ACC title game
  7. Pittsburgh (10-2): lost to Cincinnati
  8. Wisconsin (10-2): win out
The order isn't really set in stone and I could easily see teams being flopped around, but these are probably the only teams with a shot at one of the 2 open at large spots. The question becomes, where would you put Iowa? I'd say probably somewhere between 3rd and 5th. The big problem would be sitting behind Penn State. If PSU is in, then Iowa is automatically out. The other potential problem I see is a Texas loss. Texas would still get a spot almost certainly and that would narrow the options. Couple that with Boise State (who will likely be undefeated and its hard to argue with that), and Iowa could get pushed out.

Realistically though, a victory over Minnesota puts Iowa in a great position.

Iowa #13 in BCS

Iowa hangs onto a spot in the top 14 of the BCS this week coming in at #13. This pretty much ensures the Hawkeyes will be eligible for an at large bid (to likely the Fiesta Bowl) with a win next week against Minnesota at home, as long as the human voters don't jump Iowa by a bunch of 3-loss teams (which I wouldn't put it past the coaches who already placed Penn State and Wisconsin, two teams Iowa beat on the road, ahead of the Hawkeyes).

Here are the top 14:
  1. Florida
  2. Alabama
  3. Texas
  4. TCU
  5. Cincinnati
  6. Boise State
  7. Georgia Tech
  8. LSU
  9. Pittsburgh
  10. Ohio State
  11. Oregon
  12. Oklahoma State
  13. Iowa
  14. Penn State
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