Archive page 40

BlogPoll: Week 11

I am starting to move teams around a little more freely. Head-to-head has moved down in importance a little bit as there is more data to look to process. Most teams have played around 10 games at this point, so it's a little easier to separate teams from one another.

At the top, the big shake up is that I dropped Oregon behind Boise State and TCU. I looked closely at the three team's respective strength of schedule and they are all about equal. So instead of giving Oregon the benefit of the doubt for playing in a BCS conference, I looked more at how impressively the teams have been playing and Boise State came out on top.

Michigan State got a big jump, mainly because I was holding them back behind Iowa and no longer needed to do so. Despite beating Wisconsin, they are at the bottom of the 3 Big Ten teams.

There's a lot of the same the whole way down the ballot. One thing I will mention though is Iowa at 18. That feels pretty high, I know. Saturday evening I felt like dropping the Hawkeyes completely from my ballot. I have them now as the top ranked 3-loss team. When I ran through my metrics that I use to help with my ballot, Iowa came out as a top 15 team. They have played like a top 10 team a large majority of the time this year...it's just that the other part of the time has been achingly bad. So, it was a tough call. If I had used just my metrics, Iowa would have been sitting at #12, which was way too high so I dropped them to 18.

The Wastelands of Mediocrity

In 2006 I was in grad school at UNI. It was one of those programs where all the classes are at night, so people working full-time could attend. But, about every other month or so, as a part of the program, there were these dreaded Saturday classes. Some were all day events, while others were just a half day. The only redeeming quality of these classes were the free (and by free I mean paid for out of my tuition money) breakfasts. An arrangement of delicious pastries, biscotti, and coffee set out to enjoy while learning about decision making models or something like that.

One fall Saturday was particularly difficult to be in class all morning when Iowa was slated for the early 11:00 game. Some context first…Iowa was ranked number 15 and had finished the first half of the season 5-1. There was a thrilling goal-line stand against Syracuse, a couple of thrashings of some lesser talented team, and a tough loss to Ohio State. Expectations were still high for the Hawkeyes as Iowa had a star senior quarterback that was supposed to lead the team to success. So, needless to say I was excited to watch my Hawkeyes play a lowly Indiana team and become bowl eligible.

Class of course went until noon meaning I would miss at least the first quarter and possibly more. Some tried to follow the game while in class on their phone, but in 2006 the smartest of phones was barely capable of showing more than the score. At the time class was over the score was announced and Iowa was up 21-7. I rushed to my car, turned on the radio, and listened to the game on my short drive home. My wife was home watching something like, but not necessarily, Drumline, but let me switch over to the game as soon as I got home. I don’t think I need to describe the horror that I watched the next two and a half hours as one James Hardy humiliated Iowa’s secondary.

Season over. Worst loss in the history of Iowa football. Fire every coach ever. Iowa had been a team climbing the hill from mediocrity to excellence and was nearing the apex after 4 great seasons, then suddenly took a huge tumble. And they didn’t stop with a loss to the Hoosiers. They tumbled and tumbled and tumbled back down to the wastelands of 6-6 mediocrity; a place they would stay until Daniel Murray made a 31-yard field goal to beat an undefeated Penn State on November 8, 2008 and Iowa started to re-ascend.

It’s amazing how one game, one moment, can define a program for years. One loss to Indiana can send a team on a 9-game conference losing streak.

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Iowa at Northwestern: Animated Drive Chart

Thoughts on the game are coming later...for now, here's the drive chart. It's pretty clear what happened on Saturday. A bad performance by the offense in the first half, and a bad performance by the defense in the 4th quarter equaled a bad loss for the Hawkeyes.

FULL SCREEN VERSION

Iowa at Northwestern: Game Day

The need to know
What: Iowa at Indiana
Where: Ryan Field, Evanston
When: 11:00 AM
TV: ESPN

Iowa injury report
Iowa has been a little dinged up lately, but I think this week they are a little healthier than last. Adam Robinson will play after missing last week with a concussion. Jeff Tarpinian should be back on full-time duty and could start at OLB. Right guard is kind of a question mark, but Adam Gettis and Nolan MacMillan are close to playing, though Koeppel did a nice job there last week. I think the only two players definitely out are Tyler Nielsen and Jewel Hampton

UPDATE: Sandeman is apparently out today...no word yet on the reason. Chaney will be the punt returner. I imagine Keenan Davis will have an expanded role as the third receiver.

Keys to the game
Red zone: The main reason Iowa was in such a tight game with Indiana last weekend was that the Hawkeye's red zone offense was terrible. Iowa needs to better today, and should with Robinson back. We don't need to see any fade routes from Stanzi. I'd like for Iowa to pound the ball with Robinson and then maybe try a play-action pass to a TE. Let's keep it smart and simple.

Red zone defense is also going to be important. Northwestern is going to move the ball on Iowa's defense. Their quick passing game is set up perfectly to generate yards between the 20s on Iowa's bend-but-don't-break style. Keeping Northwestern to field goal attempts will be a big win for the defense. Especially because the Wildcat kicker is just 12/18 on the year and has really struggled on longer FG attempts.
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Iowa at Northwestern: Statistics

Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense

CategoryIowa O: StatIowa O: RankNorthwestern D: StatNorthwestern D: RankAdvantage
Rushing Yards15950141.4446-
Passing Yards250.7835247.33100+
Passing Efficiency172.873122.5347+
Sacks1.56421.5686+
Total Yards409.7842388.7875
Scoring32.33342042-
Turnovers621741
3rd Down Conversion501434.6819-
Red Zone %0.86330.8578+

Northwestern's defense is aggressive but not good. The aggressiveness lends it self to big plays for both teams. It has allowed Northwestern's linebackers to be very good against the run, but left the secondary weak and susceptible to play-action and screen passes. Iowa should be able to move the ball on the Wildcats, so the keys will be to not turn the ball over (which has been the problem the last two years) and to convert in the redzone (which was the problem last week).

Overall Advantage: Iowa (assuming Northwestern doesn't injury the star player for the third year in a row)
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