*Returning starter numbers for ISU are very inaccurate. Players have changed positions and been demoted making it difficult to pinpoint the exact number of returning starters.
Possibly the biggest reason for hope against ISU tomorrow, is the Cyclone's defense, more like lack of defense. Oh Snap! Anyway, ISU struggled, particularly against the run last week against NDSU, and even with the absence of Bulaga, I think Iowa's line can create some holes for Robinson and whoever else may be running the ball (Brinson...Wegher....I'm looking at you two). And Stanzi should be good enough to find open receivers against ISU's secondary. The offense just needs to execute (as always) like it did in the 3rd quarter last week. We cannot have a repeat of the first half and expect to win this game. Anyway...Iowa State's defense.
Against the Run: Iowa State gave up 210 rushing yards to the Bisons last week on 38 carries. That's 5.5 yards per carry. The NDSU offensive line just dominated the line of scrimmage.
ISU has 2 returning starters on the d-line (Rashawn Parker and Nate Frere), but the unit as a whole is pretty mediocre. Frere has good size (295 lbs), but the rest of the line undersized like Iowa's. The big difference is that these undersized guys do not have the same motor. It will likely be one of the weakest defensive lines Iowa faces all year.
The linebackers are also nothing special. Yes, the 3 starters are all seniors, but they are undersized and do not cover the field particularly well. The MLB, Jesse Smith, is the one to watch out for. He had a team high 15 tackles last week.
Against the Pass: Iowa State is better against the pass than the run. The secondary is led by strong safety David Sims. Sims had an interception and 8 tackles against the Bison. Both corners are fine, but neither is a look down corner like Spievey.
Back to the linebackers. There is just no way they will be able to cover Moeaki, or even Reisner if he plays much. If Iowa needs a place to attack, this is it. The game plan usually involves the TEs a lot (see last week), and it should be effective against ISU.
Overall Thoughts:
Iowa's offense must take advantage of the Cyclone's weak defense. The offensive line needs to establish control of the line of scrimmage and get to the second level. If NDSU can put up 210 rushing yards with their line, then Iowa should have no problems doing the same (not saying 200+ yards is likely though).
Tony Moeaki can win this game for us too. ISU's linebackers will not be able to cover him consistently. He should also be an asset in the run game as a block taking advantage of the Cyclone dismal front 7.
Does anyone really care about a scouting report on Iowa State at this point? I'm just so anxious for the game. Bulaga will be out (but should be back soon!) and it sounds like LT is completely unsettled…I think it will be Calloway, but have heard Rieff, Richardson, and Doering all have a shot. Which is a little scary, but probably the line will still better than last week. I expect ISU to test the o-line early with lots of pressure from blitzes. If Iowa can pick up on the blitzes I think Stanzi will have a good game distributing the ball. I'm still not very confident in the run game though and it would not surprise me if we see a lot of sets with 1 RB, 1 TE, and 3 WRs passing 65% of the time.
Anyway, I'm doing a scouting report anyway, but maybe not as in-depth as last week (who am I kidding…I'll probably end up ranting about something). I did watch most of the ISU-NDSU game last week and have been trying to read up on the Cyclones a little. I was also told I was too nice on UNI (though look how that turned out), so I'll mean it up a little for ISU.
Passing Game: ISU fans seem to think Austin Arnaud is the greatest thing since sliced bread (side note…the inventor of the first loaf-at-a-time-bread-slicing-machine is actually from Iowa), that he is leaps and bounds better than Stanzi, and a "proven" quarterback. I'm not sure what he's proven other than that he loses a lot as a starting quarterback. And, if you look at their stats from last year to compare Arnaud to Stanzi, they are actually pretty similar. Arnaud - 247 of 401 for 2792 yards, 15 TD and 10 INT Stanzi - 150 of 254 for 1956 yards, 14 TD and 9 INT Their completion percent is about the same favoring Arnaud just slightly (AA - 61.6%, RS - 59.1%), the number of TDs is just 1 different though Stanzi threw the ball 147 less times, QB Rating favors Stanzi slightly (AA - 127.4, RS - 134.8), yards per attempt favors Stanzi (AA - 6.9, RS - 7.70)…not sure why Arnaud is so much better. The argument that I can see is that he is pretty good on his feet, but Iowa was able to neutralize that aspect of his game last year giving up on 10 yards on 5 carries.
Also, after watching last week's game, Arnaud has a little Jake Christensen in him. He was throwing balls with all his might to guys 3 or 4 yards down field. His timing was also off as a lot of balls were slightly behind the intended receiver. He still had a fairly good game though throwing for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns. And like years past he'll likely be good enough to move ISU down the field between the 30s, but will likely stall when the defense clamps down.
Enough about Arnaud…on to the receivers. Iowa State has a decent stable of wide receivers and an okay tight end in Collin Franklin. They have 2 returning starters at WR, but Darius Darks is battling an injury and probably won't be a huge factor tomorrow. Marquis Hamilton is probably the guy to look out for (Spievey should cover him) and he had 4 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Darius Reynolds is supposedly the next big thing per ISU fans, but has played in just one whole game, but had a team him 6 receptions. Franklin, who is also supposedly just as good a Moeaki (those silly ISU fans again…) has a whopping 16 career catches, while Moeaki had 10 in last week's game alone. He does average about 17 yards per catch though, but I don't think the linebackers will have any real trouble covering him.
Rushing Game: As stated before, Arnaud is some what a threat running the ball, though probably less of a threat on designed runs and more of a threat scrambling when the pocket breaks down (which it will…he had very little time last week against NDSU). I expect somebody to be spying on Arnaud most of the game.
The Cyclones do have a pretty good running back in Alexander Robinson. He played well in the first half against NDSU, but ISU kind of went away from him in the second half. He probably good for about 15 carries and 75 yards. Behind Robinson is RS Freshman Jeremiah Schwartz. He's obviously unproven as a freshman, but did average over 6 yards per carry last week, all in clean up time in the 4th quarter though.
Iowa State has some big offensive linemen. The starting 5 averages out to about 6'3" - 327 lbs. (I'm not sure exactly who the starting 5 will be for Iowa along the o-line but it's safe to say their average size would be at most 300 lbs.) The line is also fairly experience with 4 returning starters. They did not look particularly good last week against the Bison, but were good enough for ISU to rack up over 200 rushing yards.
Overall Thoughts:
ISU did not show much offensively in game 1, at least in terms of play calling. Arnaud hinted that they have some tricks up their sleeve for the Iowa game. I'm guessing that means some different misdirection/reverse type plays and I guess I wouldn't be too surprised to see some form of Wildcat, since that's the vogue thing to do these days.
I'm a little worried about the hurry-up-no-huddle-spread-option-short-pass-wide-open-2-minute-type offense that ISU will be running, because Iowa has struggled a bit recently against the 2 minute offense. Iowa let UNI drive at the end of the game last week, same against Purdue last year (thankfully Mitch King had a huge sack and the hail mary was unsuccessful), Illinois drove down to kick a game winning field goal, Northwestern drove with ease before half, etc…I'm sure Norm will figure something out though.
Just some quick thoughts on the Bulaga rumors. First, I hope the rumors are false and that he is doing well. If they are true and he is indeed unhealthy, whether or not he gets back on the football field, I wish him a full and speedy recovery.
The rumors I've seen range anywhere from a mild knee injury that would just require him to miss one game, to a thyroid problem which would be more like a couple of weeks, all the way up to a career ending heart condition. (Check the message boards for all the rumors). Hopefully we'll get some real information soon.
I really hope this kid is okay, he had a bright future ahead of him in football.
In terms of Iowa football, this is not good news considering the offensive line is already in flux. For Saturday, I'd like to see the 4 non-Bulaga starters retain their place and put returning Kyle Calloway in at left tackle. I think the line starter to gain some continuity in the second half last week, so the coaches should stick with them. And if Gettis or Doering are not playing well, rush Vandervelde back in there.
After a successful week 1 (at least in terms of wins) the Big Ten comes into week 2 with a much more difficult slate of games and a lot more to prove. The marquee game is obviously Ohio State vs. USC and a win would do a lot to quite the Big Ten haters. There are still a fair share of cupcakes and it is completely likely that week 2 will match the 10-1 record put up week 1.
Indiana (1-0) vs. Western Michigan (0-1) - 11:00 AM: BTN After narrowly escaping with a win against Eastern Kentucky, Indiana will have its hands full against the Broncos. Western Michigan struggled against Michigan last week, but the quarterback Tim Hiller will likely be able to put up some big numbers on Indiana's defense.
Prediction: Western Michigan wins narrowly
Michigan State (1-0) vs. Central Michigan (0-1) - 11:00 AM: ESPN2 Michigan State should continue to put up big offensive number on Saturday against Central Michigan. However, they likely won't hold the Dan Lefevour led offense to only 3 point like they did against Montana State.
Prediction: Michigan State wins by a couple of scores
Northwestern (1-0) vs. Eastern Michigan (0-1) - 11:00 AM: BTN Eastern Michigan should put up more than a battle than Towson, but they are still not an impressive foe. EMU's quarterback Andy Schmitt is pretty good and should be able to move the ball down the field a little bit, but the defense will not be able to contain the Wildcats.
Prediction: Northwestern wins easy for the second week in a row
Penn State (1-0) vs. Syracuse (0-1) - 11:00 AM: BTN Does anyone play a team that actually won a game? Syracuse actually put up a fight (at least in the first half) against Minnesota last week, but they will not be able to play with the Nittany Lions.
Prediction: Penn State rolls again
Wisconsin (1-0) vs. Fresno State (1-0) - 11:00 AM: ESPN Last year the Bull Dogs kept the game very close at home but lost 10-13. This year, the Badgers are likely better, while Fresno State is probably not as good. Playing in Madison is never an easy task either.
Prediction: Wisconsin pulls away in the second half
Iowa (1-0) at Iowa State (1-0) - 11:00 AM: FSN More to come on this game (hopefully I'll get something written up...it's been a busy week).
Prediction: Iowa blocks 3 field goals in a row to win (more like wins in a close game)
Michigan (1-0) vs. Notre Dame (1-0) - 2:30 PM: ABC Michigan looked good in week 1 against Western Michigan and Notre Dame shut down Nevada. Last year Notre Dame won 35-17 as both teams were pretty bad. This year should be closer and the teams better.
Prediction: Michigan capitalizes on its home-field and wins in a close game
Illinois (0-1) vs. Illinois State (0-1) - 6:00 PM: BTN After the abysmal performance last week against Missouri, Illinois should be able to rebound fairly easily against Illinois State. The Redbirds are missing their starting QB and the Illini should have Benn back.
Prediction: Illinois takes its frustration out and wins big
Minnesota (1-0) vs. Air Force (1-0) - 6:00 PM: BTN In the first ever game in TCF Bank Stadium Air Force will certainly challenge the Gophers. Air Force won last week 72-0 and have 5 players rush for more than 50 yards. Minnesota needs to play well to win this game.
Prediction: Minnesota holds off a comeback by Air Force to win
Ohio State (1-0) vs. Southern California (1-0) - 7:00 PM: ESPN Ohio State struggle some against Navy, and USC destroyed San Jose State. So the Trojans are going to win easily, right? This is a very big game for the Buckeyes and I'm sure they were looking past Navy last week. This game will be much closer than the 35-3 blowout last year and OSU has a very good chance at winning.
Prediction: Ohio State wins in a close game
Purdue (1-0) at Oregon (0-1) - 9:15 PM: FSN A little over a week ago I would have said Oregon wins this game easily. But Purdue's Ralph Bolden and Oregon's completely pitiful offensive performance against Boise State changed my mind. Purdue has a real shot a winning this game and putting the Duck's program into complete disarray.