Anyway, I'm doing a scouting report anyway, but maybe not as in-depth as last week (who am I kidding…I'll probably end up ranting about something). I did watch most of the ISU-NDSU game last week and have been trying to read up on the Cyclones a little. I was also told I was too nice on UNI (though look how that turned out), so I'll mean it up a little for ISU.
Passing Game:
ISU fans seem to think Austin Arnaud is the greatest thing since sliced bread (side note…the inventor of the first loaf-at-a-time-bread-slicing-machine is actually from Iowa), that he is leaps and bounds better than Stanzi, and a "proven" quarterback. I'm not sure what he's proven other than that he loses a lot as a starting quarterback. And, if you look at their stats from last year to compare Arnaud to Stanzi, they are actually pretty similar.
Arnaud - 247 of 401 for 2792 yards, 15 TD and 10 INT Stanzi - 150 of 254 for 1956 yards, 14 TD and 9 INT
Their completion percent is about the same favoring Arnaud just slightly (AA - 61.6%, RS - 59.1%), the number of TDs is just 1 different though Stanzi threw the ball 147 less times, QB Rating favors Stanzi slightly (AA - 127.4, RS - 134.8), yards per attempt favors Stanzi (AA - 6.9, RS - 7.70)…not sure why Arnaud is so much better. The argument that I can see is that he is pretty good on his feet, but Iowa was able to neutralize that aspect of his game last year giving up on 10 yards on 5 carries.
Also, after watching last week's game, Arnaud has a little Jake Christensen in him. He was throwing balls with all his might to guys 3 or 4 yards down field. His timing was also off as a lot of balls were slightly behind the intended receiver. He still had a fairly good game though throwing for 227 yards and 2 touchdowns. And like years past he'll likely be good enough to move ISU down the field between the 30s, but will likely stall when the defense clamps down.
Enough about Arnaud…on to the receivers. Iowa State has a decent stable of wide receivers and an okay tight end in Collin Franklin. They have 2 returning starters at WR, but Darius Darks is battling an injury and probably won't be a huge factor tomorrow. Marquis Hamilton is probably the guy to look out for (Spievey should cover him) and he had 4 catches for 97 yards and 2 touchdowns last week. Darius Reynolds is supposedly the next big thing per ISU fans, but has played in just one whole game, but had a team him 6 receptions. Franklin, who is also supposedly just as good a Moeaki (those silly ISU fans again…) has a whopping 16 career catches, while Moeaki had 10 in last week's game alone. He does average about 17 yards per catch though, but I don't think the linebackers will have any real trouble covering him.
Rushing Game:
As stated before, Arnaud is some what a threat running the ball, though probably less of a threat on designed runs and more of a threat scrambling when the pocket breaks down (which it will…he had very little time last week against NDSU). I expect somebody to be spying on Arnaud most of the game.
The Cyclones do have a pretty good running back in Alexander Robinson. He played well in the first half against NDSU, but ISU kind of went away from him in the second half. He probably good for about 15 carries and 75 yards. Behind Robinson is RS Freshman Jeremiah Schwartz. He's obviously unproven as a freshman, but did average over 6 yards per carry last week, all in clean up time in the 4th quarter though.
Iowa State has some big offensive linemen. The starting 5 averages out to about 6'3" - 327 lbs. (I'm not sure exactly who the starting 5 will be for Iowa along the o-line but it's safe to say their average size would be at most 300 lbs.) The line is also fairly experience with 4 returning starters. They did not look particularly good last week against the Bison, but were good enough for ISU to rack up over 200 rushing yards.
Overall Thoughts:
- ISU did not show much offensively in game 1, at least in terms of play calling. Arnaud hinted that they have some tricks up their sleeve for the Iowa game. I'm guessing that means some different misdirection/reverse type plays and I guess I wouldn't be too surprised to see some form of Wildcat, since that's the vogue thing to do these days.
- I'm a little worried about the hurry-up-no-huddle-spread-option-short-pass-wide-open-2-minute-type offense that ISU will be running, because Iowa has struggled a bit recently against the 2 minute offense. Iowa let UNI drive at the end of the game last week, same against Purdue last year (thankfully Mitch King had a huge sack and the hail mary was unsuccessful), Illinois drove down to kick a game winning field goal, Northwestern drove with ease before half, etc…I'm sure Norm will figure something out though.