Sure, we've heard it before, the adage that defense wins championships. These days, however, the national media cares more about explosive offenses and star quarterbacks than disciplined defenses and shutdown corners. Perhaps the media needs to take a closer look at the numbers as the teams rising to the top of the standings all have one thing in common...a great defense

Coefficient of Determination:
The coefficient of determination (r-squared), without getting all technical, is a statistical representation of how well a piece of data predicts an outcome. I determined r-squared for Total Offense, Total Defense, Scoring Offense, and Scoring Defense as predictors of a team's winning percentage.

1. Scoring Defense - .573
2. Scoring Offense - .572
3. Total Defense - .425
4. Total Offense -.275

Obviously looking at points rather than yards is a better indicator of wins. There is really no difference between scoring defense vs. offense, but the is an obvious gap between total defense and total offense. Based on the stats, a team's total offense has very little bearing of their overall record. If you look at the top 5 offensive teams (Houston, Nevada, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, and Notre Dame), not a single one is rated in the top 10 in the BCS (Houston is #15). If you look at total defense however, the top 5 teams (TCU, Florida, Texas, Alabama, and Penn State), all 4 of the teams are in the BCS top 10 and PSU is #11.

More Stats:
Another revealing defensive statistic is pass efficiency defense. The top 5 are Florida, Alabama, Iowa, Oregon, and Texas...all vying for a spot in the championship game. Texas and Florida are atop the 3rd down defense and TCU, Florida, Boise State, Alabama, and Iowa are all in the top 10 in first down defense.

Hawkeyes:
So it's no real wonder why the Hawkeyes are winning...it's defense. Iowa is 3rd overall in pass efficiency defense and in the top 20 for both total defense (19) and scoring defense (13). The defense has only given up over 20 points twice, against Michigan (21) and Indiana (24) (Arkansas State scored 21, but 7 were off an interception). When you hold a team to under 20 points, you win a lot of games, even if the offense is only averaging 25.7 points per game.

Let's dive right into the numbers this week...

Iowa Offense vs. Northwestern Defense

Category	Iowa Offense		Northwestern Defense		Advantage
	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Rushing Yards	125.22	89	122.89	49	WW
Passing Yards	232.22	45	226.22	71	H
Passing Efficiency	128.80	58	133.18	83	H
Sacks	2.22	74	2.33	45	W
Total Yards	357.44	74	349.11	51	W
Scoring	25.67	74	24.78	68	-
Turnovers	17	80	18	27	WWW
3rd Down Conversion	42.86	40	36.61	49	-
Red Zone %	85	38	76	31	-

I'll admit, I was actually quite shocked when I saw the stats for Northwestern's defense. Considering the unit has gone through 20 starters (9 in the secondary alone), they have played decently. Against the run the Wildcats have been okay with a solid defensive line. They are giving up less than 4 yards per carry, but have struggled the last two weeks against Indiana and Penn State (who averaged 5.9 and 6.0 yards per carry respectively). Obviously Iowa's ground game will rely again on Wegher. He showed last week that he can carry the load and I would expect a similar effort this week.

I don't know what to think about Iowa's passing attack. Looking at the numbers, Stanzi should once again have the advantage facing a mangled Wildcat secondary. As long as it is not windy, I expect Stanzi to put up another big game.

The key here for Iowa is going to be sustaining drives. Northwestern has been good at getting the defense off of the field, either by a turnover or stopping a 3rd down conversion. They have been especially good inside the red zone.

Overall Advantage: the numbers say Northwestern...but with all the injuries you would have to think Iowa.

Iowa Defense vs. Northwestern Offense

Category	Iowa Defense		Northwestern Offense		Advantage
	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Rushing Yards	117.44	39	121.89	94	HH
Passing Yards	180.11	26	268.33	24	-
Passing Efficiency	94.25	3	130.23	53	HHH
Sacks	2.00	55	2.67	94	HH
Total Yards	297.56	19	390.22	52	HH
Scoring	15.78	13	25.67	74	HHH
Turnovers	25	4	19	95	HHHH
3rd Down Conversion	34.85	31	49.34	9	W
Red Zone %	87	95	85	38	WWW

Another week with an overwhelming amount of Hs. Northwestern throws for a lot of yards, but that's about it. They don't score a lot of points and they make mistakes at critical times (turnovers and sacks).

Iowa should be able to make Northwestern completely one dimensional as the Wildcat run game has been very inconsistent. They have had injuries at running back, and perhaps the biggest rushing threat, Kafka, may not be 100% with a minor hamstring injury. I would be very surprised if Northwestern ran for over 100 yards.

If Kafka is healthy, he should be able to find open receivers underneath Iowa's zone coverage. However, dinking and dunking will not lead to touchdowns and will not be enough for Northwestern to stay in this game. They will need to take some shots down the field eventually, which will play right into Iowa's strength of the defense.

Overall Advantage: Iowa and it's not even close

Iowa Special Teams vs. Northwestern Special Teams

Category	Iowa Special Teams		Northwestern Special Teams		Advantage
	Stat	Rank	Stat	Rank
Kick Returns	20.63	83	19.00	106	H
Punt Returns	8.45	68	6.76	83	H
Net Punting	37.90	23	32.35	108	HHHHH
Field Goal %	73.7	57	86.7	22	WW

Besides last week, Iowa has been rock solid on special teams. Northwestern on the other hand has been really poor. Besides a good place kicker, Stefan Demos who is 13-15, the Wildcats rank near the bottom of the country in the return game and in punting. The "hidden yards" that were talked about so much last week definitely favor Iowa.

Overall Advantage: Iowa

Prediction: It seems like every week I think will be the week that the offense gets it going...and I'll stay true to form this week. Stanzi comes out with something to prove and gets his second 300 yard game in a row. Wegher plays better with a start under his belt and the offense carries the momentum gained in the 4th quarter last week. The defense takes advantage of an ailing Kafka forcing multiple turnovers after giving up an early TD.

Iowa 31 - Northwestern 13

I have seen and heard a lot of debate over who Iowa should be rooting for this weekend when Ohio State travels to Happy Valley to take on the Nittany Lions. Both sides have valid points, but in the end I think there is one true winner.

You may remember Payoff Matrices from economics or maybe from the movie A Beautiful Mind. Anyway, they are a simple way of applying the Nash Equilibrium (Google it if you need to) to determine the best "strategy" in a game. In this case, the strategy is who we want to win the Penn State vs. Ohio State game.

For this exercise I'm assuming the 3 teams in question (Iowa, PSU, and OSU) all take care of business the rest of the season (because none of this matters if Iowa fails to beat Northwestern). So there are 4 scenarios to looks at as seen in the below matrix.

	Iowa Beats OSU	Iowa Loses to OSU
PSU Beats OSU	NC/Rose; PSU 11-1; OSU 8-4	Rose Bowl
OSU Beats PSU	NC/Rose; PSU 10-2; OSU 9-3	At-Large/Cap One

The Hawkeyes control only one axis of this matrix...win or lose against Ohio State. If Iowa loses to Ohio State, then obviously the better situation is for Penn State to win on Saturday. This would ensure a Rose Bowl birth. Simple and sweet.

If Iowa wins in Ohio Stadium, then things get a little more interesting. ESPN's Big Ten super blogger Adam Rittenberg outlines the argument for the Buckeyes. He says that Iowa should want OSU to win because "any true competitor wants to play the best, and if Iowa wants to get the credit it deserves for completing a brutal Big Ten road schedule, it should want Ohio State to be ranked as highly as possible..." A fine argument, but he overlooks the fact that Iowa already beat Penn State in Happy Valley. At the end of the year what is going to look more impressive: a road win against an 11-1 PSU and an 8-4 OSU or a road win against a 10-2 PSU and a 9-3 OSU? If Penn State were 11-1 they would be a top 10 team with a likely at-large BCS birth awaiting, and that win back in week 4 would look very impressive. I think that far outweighs a win over a 9-3 Ohio State team that lost to Purdue. If Iowa happens to be jarring for a spot in the championship game and the analysts are weighing in on Iowa's resume, I want a spectacular signature win (something Texas will not have) instead of 2 pretty good wins.

In both Hawkeye controlled cases then (an Iowa win or an Iowa loss against Ohio State), I would argue that a Penn State victory would help the cause. So, I will be fighting and cheering for Penn State this weekend.

Last night was the first round of the Iowa High School playoffs and 5 future Hawks were in action. There were also a few games played by commits last Friday and over the weekend.

Iowa High School Playoffs:

Austin Vier: Ballard 17 - Clear Lake 31
Ballard's season ended last night falling to #2 Clear Lake. The Bomber were up 14-0 early, but Clear Lake's triple-option was too much to handle. Austin Vier started the game off well throwing an early 6 yard touchdown. But Vier got a case of Stanzi-itis and threw 4 interceptions, including one that was returned for a TD with just 2 minutes left in the game as Ballard was trying to come back. Vier finished the season going 66 of 139 (47.5%) for 748 yards. He also threw 7 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

James Morris: Solon 42 – Mid-Prairie 13
Solon didn't miss a beat rolling over yet another opponent trying to win what would be their 3rd straight title. Solon ran all over Mid-Prairie racking up 330 yards on the ground in route to a big victory. Solon only threw the ball 5 times, 4 times by Morris who was 2 of 4 for 60 yards, but had 1 intercepted. Morris also ran 13 times for 115 yards and 1 touchdown (the first score of the day). Solon will face off against Regina, a team they beat 42-7 in week 8, on Friday.

Brandon Scherff: Denison 14 – Bishop Heelan 34
Denison-Schleswig had a rough night against Bishop Heelan Crusaders. The Monarchs allowed 2 touchdown returns on kickoffs and could not get its offense going until the 4th quarter after the deficit was already too much to overcome. Denison-Schleswig's season ends with a record of 6-4.

A.J. Derby: City High 24 – Hempstead 7
Iowa City High's defense dominated last night in a victory of Dubuque Hempstead giving up only a late 4th quarter touchdown. The offense also did its part using a couple of big pass plays to put up 24 points. Derby struggled a little running the ball and finished with 11 rushes for 40 yards. He had a good night passing though going 12-19 for 136 yards and 2 touchdowns. City High will face off against CR Washington (and Andre Dawson...wish he would commit to Iowa too!) on Friday night in a rematch of the September 5th game that the Little Hawks dominated 65-21.

Matt Hoch: Harlan 48 - ADM 0
Harlan shut out its 6th opponent of the year last night winning big over ADM. Matt Hoch had an excellent night scoring the first touchdown of the game with a 50 yard run half way through the first quarter. He also tacked on a 2 yard dive into the endzone right before halftime that put the Cyclones up 28-0. Harlan will face off against Bishop Heelan this Friday. Harlan beat Heelan 24-6 back in week 2 and it was Heelan's only loss this year.

Other Commits:

Marcus Coker: DeMatha 44 - Carroll 0
Coker sat out for the second straight week with a groin injury. DeMatha still won easily and moved to 9-0.

Jim Poggi & Anthony Ferguson: Gilman 42 - Mt. St. Joseph 0
Gilman dominated on Saturday scoring 35 first half points and ended up winning by 6 TDs. Gilman is now 3-1 in conference and this weekend will be playing for the conference title against McDonogh.

Christian Kirksey & Don Shumpert: Hazelwood East 32 – Zumwalt North 18
Hazelwood East continued to roll winning its 6th game in a row. After going into halftime tied at 12 a piece, East but up a big second half to beat Zumwalt North. Shumpert had 9 catches for 98 yards and a catch on a 2-point conversion. Kirksey yet again led the team in tackles with 9. I am really starting to believe Kirksey is going to be a special player. He has a ridiculous 143 tackles in just 10 games.

Andrew Donnal: Anthony Wayne 49 - Springfield 0
Anthony Wayne blanked another opponent winning big for the second week in a row. Anthony Wayne ends its season 7-3.

Mike Hardy: Kimberly 35 – Green Bay Southwest 6
Kimberly moves on to the 3rd round of the Wisconsin playoffs with a 29-point victory. Last week on Tuesday (in-between recruit roundups) Kimberly beat De Pere 51-31 in the first round.

Stephane N’goumou Milford 0 - Erie JJC 18
Milford lost its 3rd game of the year failing to put any points on the board despite 3 red zone trips.

B.J. Lowery Hughes Center 6 – Taft 22
In the final game of the year, Hughes Center lost to Taft 6-22. Hughes Center finishes the season with only one win.

Carl Davis Stevenson 35 - Roseville 0
Stevenson won easily despite having 4 turnovers in the Pre-District round of the Michigan High School playoffs. The team moves to 10-0 and advances to the second round of the playoff where they will face Warren Mott, a team they just beat last week 49-21.

Donovan Johnson Martin 29 - Mansfield Summet 40
Martin held a 1 point advantage at the end of the 3rd quarter but gave up 13 4th quarter points in a loss to Mansfield Summet.

De’Andre Johnson Monsignor 31 – Somerset Academy 6
Johnson still out, but Monsignor is not missing him winning big again.

Note: Some players are already done for the season so are not included in this roundup.

Previous Recruit Roundups:

• Iowa Substate
  
• Week 9
  
• Week 8
  
• Week 7
  
• Week 6
  

I have to admit, at half time I said that it was not time to panic yet, but in that third quarter, I was starting to worry a little (and by a little, I mean a whole lot). But the Hawkeyes got it done once again and are sitting pretty at 9-0. Those 28 4th quarter points were more points that Iowa has put up in 6 different games this year and the most scored in a quarter since the 28 points scored first quarter in a 56-0 win against Ball State the first week of the 2005 season.

What was really remarkable to me (besides those long TD passes) was the defense in the 3rd quarter. With 4 Stanzi interceptions, Indiana had drives starting at their own 5, Iowa's 4, their 34, Iowa's 24, and their 46. That averages to a starting position on Iowa's 48 yard line. Indiana also got to the red zone 3 times that quarter. But the Hawkeye defense stood strong and actually outscored Indiana 7-3 in the 3rd quarter. Tyler Sash returned an interception 86 yards for a TD when Indiana was 3rd and goal. The defense also held Indiana to field goal attempts on the other 2 red zone trips (though the refs may have helped a little...both calls were very close). Indiana's kicker only converted on one of those field goals.

Stars of the Game:

Offense - Brandon Wegher
Wegher was probably the coaches 4th choice (maybe even 5th) at running back coming into the season. But with a slew of injuries he came out as a starter for the first time in his short career and had a very good day. He ran the ball 25 times for 118 yards. He had 3 touchdowns, including 2 in the 4th quarter that helped seal the win. He also had 1 catch for 8 yards.

Offense Honorable Mention - DJK
Though McNutt had more receiving yards and one more reception, I thought DJK was the best receiver in the game. He made a great cut on his long touchdown catch running through 3 or 4 defenders in route to the endzone. He also consistently broke free from his defender finding space in the defense. On 2 of Stanzi's interceptions, DJK was wide open, but the ball was just under-thrown (or caught up in the wind). He finished the day with 3 catches for 117 yards. vHe also did a nice job on kickoff returns averaging 27 yards per return.

Defense - Shaun Prater
Prater missed the first two games of the year under suspension. He also missed some time with a minor injury. When he has played he has been very good, but has been overshadowed by Amari Spievey. This week though, he had a chance to shine as Indiana wasvthrowing in his direction all day long (I would avoid Spievey's side too). And, for the most part he handled it well. He was 3rd on the team with 8 tackles (7 solo) and had an interception and 3 pass break ups. That's not to say he had a perfect game...Indiana's 2nd TD came against Prater in coverage (it was actually double coverage, but the pass and catch were very well executed). He also gave up a 45 yard pass where he was called for pass interference (great catch though by Belcher). Still, he had a very good game yesterday.

Keys of the Game:

The Red Zone
I wrote before the game that red zone play would bea key in the game and it definitely was. Indiana drove into the red zone 6 times. In the first half they came away with 3 TDs and a 21-7 lead. In the second half, however, their 3 red zone trips resulted in a missed field goal, an interception returned for a TD, and a made field goal.

Iowa was only in the red zone twice against Indiana's 11th-best-in-the-country red zone defense. The Hawkeyes came away both times with Brandon Wegher TD runs.

The Big Play
Coming into the game I was worried that the big plays would go in Indiana's favor. The Hawkeye defense and coverage teams did an excellent job holding the Hoosiers in check. Ray Fisher, who averaged almost 40 yards per kick return had just one return for 25 yards. Also, Darrius Willis, who has broken off several long TD runs this year, was held to 54 yards on 21 carries. His long of the day was just 11 yards. The defense really only gave up one big play, the 45 pass to Belcher. The good news, though, is that after the long pass, the defense held and the drive ended with a missed field goal.

Iowa obviously had some huge plays yesterday when coming back from behind. It started with the quintuple-ricocheted interception by Sash that he ran back for a TD. Then came the 92-yard McNutt touchdown and the 66-yard DJK touchdown.

Final Thought of the Morning:

This season has been a lot of fun and great to blog about. Iowa hasn't lost since I started this blog (knock on wood). Now there are only 3 more weeks to go...and that game at Ohio State in a couple of weeks looks like it might be one of the biggest games in Hawkeye history as there will be a lot on the line.