Fans often like to discount recruiting rankings (especially fans of teams that don't have very high rankings) citing things walk-ons turning into pros and Appalachian State beating Michigan. Sure, those things happen. But more often than not recruiting rankings do matter. So, in keeping with my goal of looking at data to make B1G predictions I wanted to take a look at recruiting rankings.

Mostly just for fun, but also to justify using recruiting rankings as a predictor, I took at look at just how good they are at predicting. This is definitely not a very original thing to do. BHGP just had an excellent player development post that compared recruiting rankings to NFL draftee. More in-line of what I'm looking for though, is this study that's from the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports. The study concluded that "up to 45% of the variances in the end-of-season ratings and total wins" could be predicted by the recruiting rankings. That sounds pretty nice, but it's from a few years ago and I still wanted to run the numbers myself.

Iowa develops NFL talent: confirmed by numbers!

A poster over on BHGP (UpUpDownDown) put together a pretty amazing post that compares recruiting rankings to NFL draftees and confirms what we've all know for years: Iowa is exceptional at developing players. There is a ton of good information in the post (some breakdowns by conference and offense vs. defense), but the part most exciting is that since 2002 Iowa has been the 3rd best program at developing players.

The analysis is quite interesting, but it boils down to what the poster call the Development Ratio. It takes the actual number of draftees divide by the expected number of draftees based on recruiting rankings (read the post for a better explanation). Based on Iowa's mix of 2, 3, 4, and 5-star players they would have been expected to have 13 draft picks, but in actuality Iowa has had 22. So, Iowa's program essentially doubles a player's chance of becoming a NFL draftee than an average BCS program. Compare that to Iowa State, whose expected number of draftees comes in just slightly lower at 12.6. However, the Cyclones have had just 5 players drafted. They are actually the third worst BCS program.

I think I watched more draft coverage in the past 3 days than in my entire life. This year's group of departing Hawkeyes was rather likable and I wanted to see where they would land. I'm not a big NFL guy and don't really have a team, but this draft was still very entertaining.

Iowa matched a Kirk Ferentz high with 6 players selected in the NFL draft. There were also six Hawkeyes drafted in last year's draft. There were just 4 schools (USC-9, North Carolina-9, Miami-8, and Nebraska-7) that had more players drafted. And, coming the past two years, Iowa's 12 draftees comes in behind only USC and North Carolina (via @HawkeyeReport). Perhaps most impressive to me though, is that the Hawkeyes had 3 defensive linemen selected in one year. Give Coach Kaczenski a raise, because that is truly an amazing feat.

Still the draft was not without its disappointment. Both Ballard and Stanzi were predicted to go in earlier rounds but slipped to the 4th and 5th round respectively. Friday's second and third rounds were frustrating to watch as each team skipped over the former Hawks. Ballard's drop can likely be attributed to his alleged failed drug test at the combine, while Stanzi's is more of a mystery. The best I can guess is that not too many teams were need of a backup quarterback this year.

I am starting to do a little analysis on the B1G teams for 2011. Ultimately I'd like to have enough information to make some solid predictions about how the conference title race is going to shake out. My plan is to look at the players returning, recruiting, strength of schedule, and 2010 performance. I might throw a few other things in there as well.

First up is returning starters. (This information is from the 2011 Big Ten Football Spring Prospectus)

Congratulations to Adrian Clayborn on being selected in the 1st Round of the NFL Draft as the 20th overall pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers! Clayborn was the 8th defensive linemen drafted this year and the first Hawkeye. This marks the second year in a row that Iowa has had a first round draft pick. Last year Bryan Bulaga was taken as the 23rd pick by Green Bay. Bulaga started in and won the Super Bowl.

Some think that Clayborn is kind of a gamble because of his Erb's Palsy and a less production senior season, but if he can get back in his 2009 form, he should have a nice NFL career.