The
2009 preseason consensus is that Michigan State will finish 3rd in the Big Ten and Iowa will finish 4th. The gap is not large, and Phil Steele actually put the two tied in 4th place, but it still annoys me. Iowa will be better than Michigan State in 2009.
Offense:
The two teams were fairly similar on offense in 2008. They both ran a pro-style offense and had a strong power running attack. Both teams preferred to run inside the red zone scoring twice as many rushing touchdowns as passing touchdowns, though Iowa had 11 more total touchdowns than MSU. Also, unlike Iowa's balanced offense which had 189 rush yards per game and 184 pass yards, Michigan State was more pass heavy with only 138 yards on the ground (actually surprisingly low to me considering Javon Ringer averaged 126 yards per game himself) versus 214 through the air. Even though MSU's passing attack was more potent, it was less efficient as Iowa had a better completion percent (58.4% to 53.6%), yards per pass attempt (7.4 to 6.9), and pass rating (130.1 to 116.1).
Coming into 2009, both teams must replace a top 5 running back (Greene was #2 and Ringer was #4 in rushing yards) and a couple of linemen. This will certainly test both teams ability to run. Iowa returns more experience in the backfield with Jewel Hampton's 91 carries for 463 yards and 7 touchdowns versus MSU's leading returner Andre Anderson who only had 97 yards on 26 carries. Iowa also returns more experience along the offensive line. Though both teams lose 2 starters, Iowa can plug in the holes with Rafael Eubanks, a starter from 2007, at center and Dace Richardson or Dan Doering, previous starters back from injury, at guard. Compare that to tackle J’Michael Deane and guard Jared McGaha who both only played in 1 game last year.
The biggest difference, though, is that Michigan State must also replace quarterback Brain Hoyer when Iowa has the luxury of having returning starter Ricky Stanzi. Michigan State does have 2 viable options at quarterback with Kirk Cousins and Keith Nichol. While both are very talented, they lack experience which can be vital to the success of a quarterback.
I will give MSU the nod in one area though, and that's at wide receiver. The Spartans return the 4 leaders in receiving yards from last year including 3 reliable wide receivers, Blair White, B.J. Cunningham, and Mark Dell, and a serviceable tight end, Charlie Gantt. Iowa, on the other hand, loses 2 of its top 3 receivers (Andy Brodell and Brandon Myers). There is definitely talent at the position but nobody is really proven (yeah DJK played well at the end of last year, but he needs to stop making the coaches mad). Iowa does have the edge with its tight ends though.
Recap:
In summary, Iowa's offense is more experience on the line, at running back, and especially at quarterback. Also, trending off of 2008, Iowa has the potential to be more balanced, score more points, run the ball better, and have a more efficient passing game.
Defense:
On defense, both teams return 8 starters from 2008 including 2 linemen, all 3 linebackers, and 3 in the secondary. However, the caliber of returnees is quite different. In 2008 Iowa led Michigan State in almost every defensive statistical category. Just to name some of the major ones: points per game (13 to 22.1), rush yards per game (94 to 142.5), pass yards per game (197.3 to 213.4), and total yards per game (291.3 to 355.8). The only real areas MSU was better than Iowa was on fourth down and in sacks.
Let's break this down by position. Along the defensive line Iowa and Michigan State have 2 returning starter. Iowa's are junior defensive ends Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard, Michigan State's are senior DE Trevor Anderson and junior DT Oren Wilson. Clayborn and Anderson are the stars of their respective lines. Anderson may be a little flashier with his 8 sacks, but Clayborn was more consistent and had 20 more tackles. For the other linemen, Iowa has the edge…Ballard is a much better returnee than Wilson and Karl Klug will be an experienced first time starter.
Linebacker is the strength of both the Hawkeye's and Spartan's defense. Iowa has 3 very good linebackers in Pat Angerer, A.J. Edds, and Jerimiha Hunter. Michigan State also returns 3 good starters in Greg Jones, Adam Decker, and Eric Gordon, but they are mixing some things up this year. Brandon Denson has jumped Adam Decker and Jones is moving inside to the MIKE position. It will be interesting to see the effects these changes have. Regardless, Jones has star potential and like Angerer will be the leader of the defense. Where Iowa is slightly better though is with Edds and Hunter. Both have lots of experience and are very disruptive against the pass and run.
Finally, in the secondary, again, both team return the same number of starters. Michigan State loses its best player Otis Wiley, while the Hawkeyes still have its best player Amari Spievey. Spievey will be a shut down corner, something the Spartans do not have. Additionally, Iowa's secondary has a knack for interceptions, especially with Tyler Sash, while MSU is better at breaking up passes.
Recap:
Honestly, after comparing the two defenses position by position they look pretty even with Iowa having a slight edge. But when you put the whole thing together, Iowa defense just works better than just about any in the country. I'll give credit to Norm Parker for that.
Special Teams:
I don't have much to say about special teams. Both teams return their place kicker and punter, though MSU loses it's kick off guy. Ryan Donahue for Iowa is the better punter and Brett Swenson for Michigan State is probably a better place kicker than Murray or Mossbrucker (though it's close). Both teams were mediocre in the return game and in kick coverage so I'll say it's a wash there. Hopefully Iowa will get a boost in the return game from incoming freshman Brandon Wegher, but only time will tell.
Other Factors:
Though Iowa and Michigan State had identical records in 2008 (9-4), the Hawkeye's 4 losses were by a combined 12 points while the Spartan's were by 88. Also, Iowa has the momentum coming into the 2009 season as in the final 7 games of 2008, Iowa was 6-1; MSU was 4-3 (and 0-2 in the last 2).
Conclusion:
I just don't see how people can think Michigan State will be better than Iowa this year. There are only two arguments I can buy. First, that MSU has an easier schedule than Iowa and will therefore have a better record. And second, Iowa has to travel to East Lansing where it has struggled in recent history. While both of those are valid, I think this is the year Iowa will win in Spartan Stadium and I think Michigan State will have a very tough time with the stretch of games @Notre Dame, @Wisconsin, vs. Michigan, @Illinois, vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, and @Minnesota. I think they go 4-3 in those 7 games and they still have Penn State left on the schedule. So anyway, this was a long post...but the Hawkeyes will be better than the Spartans.