I did this last week for the first time and I think it worked pretty well. My final predictions based off the numbers were that Stanzi would lead a couple second half TD drive (he only had the one TD drive, but led to other FG drives before that) and that the defense would hold Cousins to his worst game (it was his 3rd worst QB rating, tied for worst completion %, and 2nd worst yards per attempt). This week is a Halloween match up against Indiana.
KEY
Rank Differential: Advantage
0-9: Push
10-29: H
30-49: HH
50-79: HHH
80-99: HHHH
100+ : HHHHH
Teams
A: Away (Indiana Hoosiers)
H: Home (Iowa Hawkeyes)
Rank Differential: Advantage
0-9: Push
10-29: H
30-49: HH
50-79: HHH
80-99: HHHH
100+ : HHHHH
Teams
A: Away (Indiana Hoosiers)
H: Home (Iowa Hawkeyes)
Iowa Offense vs. Indiana Defense
When Iowa has the ball, it will obviously both team's weaker side on the field. Iowa's offense has been just good enough this year and Indiana's defense has given up big chunks of yards, but has been saved a little by creating turnovers.
Iowa's run game may have some problems again this week against the Hoosiers. Not only is the ground game hurt with injuries to Robinson and Richardson, but Indiana's run defense has been decent. They have a couple of good defensive ends and Jammie Kirlew is particularly good. He has 13.5 tackles for loss (7th in the country), is 4th on the team with 45 tackles, and has force 5 fumbles(tied for 1st in the country). I think Iowa might want to stick with the inside zone plays and take advantage of the weaker tackles (they have a freshman in there due to an injury to Jarrod Smith).
Iowa should have the advantage in the passing game. Though all 4 of the Indiana defensive backs are upper classmen, they have not been very good giving up almost 250 yards per game and letting QBs complete 61% of their passes. They are further hampered with and injury to CB Donnell Jones (who may still play). I thought Stanzi would have a good game last week against MSU's porous secondary, but that was mostly wrong. I'm going to predict a big week again for Stanzi, though. With the potential issues with the run game I think KOK will come out firing and let Stanzi control the game.
Overall Advantage: Iowa (probably just a small advantage though)
Iowa Defense vs. Indiana Offense
Look at all those Hs! It's no surprise that the Hawkeye defense, one of the best in the country, has lots of advantages over Indiana.
Indiana switched to a Pistol offense to try to give their downhill running game a boost. For the most part it has been more of a bust than a boost. Darius Willis has had a couple of big games (against Michigan and Northwestern...both losses), but other than that they have been rather mediocre. Iowa run D struggled a little earlier in the year, but has been coming on strong as of late only giving up 85 yards to Michigan State and 87 to Wisconsin. I anticipate the defensive line to hold Indiana's backs in check as well.
Indiana wins and loses with quarterback Ben Chappell. When his QB rating is over 119, Indiana is 4-0...below 119 Indiana is 0-4. He has been doing well for the most part completing 63% of his passes and throwing for about 230 yards per game. Iowa's passing defense has been superb for the most part, so I'm guessing Chappell has one of those sub-119 games.
Overall Advantage: Iowa (BIG time)
Iowa Special Teams vs. Indiana Special Teams
Indiana has a very dangerous returner in Ray Fisher. He has already taken two kickoff back for touchdowns and averages almost 40 yards a return. He also good on punt returns with a 9.8 yard average. Iowa needs to try to kick away from this guy.
Indiana's kicking game, however, has been very poor. They are near the very bottom of the country in net punting. Their punter, Chris Hangerup only has one punt over 49 yards (a 50-yarder) in 38 attempts, just 8 downed inside the 20, and is averaging just 41.5 yards a kick. Donahue might not be averaging much further per punt (42.4 yards) but has 19 downed inside the 20 and 10 that went over 50 yards in the same number of punt (38).
The Hoosier place kicker has also struggled. He is just 11-18 for on field goals. Outside of 30 yards he is 7-13 and hasn't made a single one beyond 39 yards.
Overall Advantage: Iowa (as long as the Hawks contain Fisher)
Prediction: Ricky Stanzi gets the offense going a little bit, but its another game with a lot of field goals (Indiana has the 11th best red zone defense). Iowa will eventually put a couple of TDs on the board and pull away in the second half. The defense keeps Indiana in check all day.
Iowa 23 - Indiana 10
| Category | Iowa Offense | Indiana Defense | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Rushing Yards | 123.00 | 91 | 145.88 | 68 | A |
| Passing Yards | 219.13 | 60 | 246.63 | 101 | HH |
| Passing Efficiency | 127.02 | 69 | 135.09 | 89 | H |
| Sacks | 2.13 | 69 | 2.25 | 47 | A |
| Total Yards | 342.13 | 87 | 392.50 | 88 | - |
| Scoring | 23.63 | 86 | 26.50 | 77 | - |
| Turnovers | 11 | 31 | 18 | 15 | A |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 41.67 | 46 | 43.40 | 99 | HHH |
| Red Zone % | 84 | 53 | 71 | 11 | AA |
When Iowa has the ball, it will obviously both team's weaker side on the field. Iowa's offense has been just good enough this year and Indiana's defense has given up big chunks of yards, but has been saved a little by creating turnovers.
Iowa's run game may have some problems again this week against the Hoosiers. Not only is the ground game hurt with injuries to Robinson and Richardson, but Indiana's run defense has been decent. They have a couple of good defensive ends and Jammie Kirlew is particularly good. He has 13.5 tackles for loss (7th in the country), is 4th on the team with 45 tackles, and has force 5 fumbles(tied for 1st in the country). I think Iowa might want to stick with the inside zone plays and take advantage of the weaker tackles (they have a freshman in there due to an injury to Jarrod Smith).
Iowa should have the advantage in the passing game. Though all 4 of the Indiana defensive backs are upper classmen, they have not been very good giving up almost 250 yards per game and letting QBs complete 61% of their passes. They are further hampered with and injury to CB Donnell Jones (who may still play). I thought Stanzi would have a good game last week against MSU's porous secondary, but that was mostly wrong. I'm going to predict a big week again for Stanzi, though. With the potential issues with the run game I think KOK will come out firing and let Stanzi control the game.
Overall Advantage: Iowa (probably just a small advantage though)
Iowa Defense vs. Indiana Offense
| Category | Iowa Defense | Indiana Offense | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Rushing Yards | 122.25 | 44 | 123.57 | 89 | HH |
| Passing Yards | 174.25 | 17 | 232.63 | 43 | H |
| Passing Efficiency | 92.68 | 5 | 123.70 | 74 | HHH |
| Sacks | 2.13 | 51 | 1.13 | 20 | AA |
| Total Yards | 296.50 | 18 | 360.00 | 72 | HHH |
| Scoring | 14.75 | 14 | 23.63 | 86 | HHH |
| Turnovers | 22 | 4 | 12 | 39 | HH |
| 3rd Down Conversion | 35.96 | 43 | 38.94 | 66 | H |
| Red Zone % | 94 | 112 | 81 | 67 | AA |
Look at all those Hs! It's no surprise that the Hawkeye defense, one of the best in the country, has lots of advantages over Indiana.
Indiana switched to a Pistol offense to try to give their downhill running game a boost. For the most part it has been more of a bust than a boost. Darius Willis has had a couple of big games (against Michigan and Northwestern...both losses), but other than that they have been rather mediocre. Iowa run D struggled a little earlier in the year, but has been coming on strong as of late only giving up 85 yards to Michigan State and 87 to Wisconsin. I anticipate the defensive line to hold Indiana's backs in check as well.
Indiana wins and loses with quarterback Ben Chappell. When his QB rating is over 119, Indiana is 4-0...below 119 Indiana is 0-4. He has been doing well for the most part completing 63% of his passes and throwing for about 230 yards per game. Iowa's passing defense has been superb for the most part, so I'm guessing Chappell has one of those sub-119 games.
Overall Advantage: Iowa (BIG time)
Iowa Special Teams vs. Indiana Special Teams
| Category | Iowa Special Teams | Indiana Special Teams | Advantage | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stat | Rank | Stat | Rank | ||
| Kick Returns | 20.69 | 81 | 25.91 | 14 | AAA |
| Punt Returns | 9.89 | 48 | 9.83 | 50 | - |
| Net Punting | 38.97 | 12 | 31.95 | 113 | HHHHH |
| Field Goal % | 77.8 | 41 | 61.1 | 94 | HHH |
Indiana has a very dangerous returner in Ray Fisher. He has already taken two kickoff back for touchdowns and averages almost 40 yards a return. He also good on punt returns with a 9.8 yard average. Iowa needs to try to kick away from this guy.
Indiana's kicking game, however, has been very poor. They are near the very bottom of the country in net punting. Their punter, Chris Hangerup only has one punt over 49 yards (a 50-yarder) in 38 attempts, just 8 downed inside the 20, and is averaging just 41.5 yards a kick. Donahue might not be averaging much further per punt (42.4 yards) but has 19 downed inside the 20 and 10 that went over 50 yards in the same number of punt (38).
The Hoosier place kicker has also struggled. He is just 11-18 for on field goals. Outside of 30 yards he is 7-13 and hasn't made a single one beyond 39 yards.
Overall Advantage: Iowa (as long as the Hawks contain Fisher)
Prediction: Ricky Stanzi gets the offense going a little bit, but its another game with a lot of field goals (Indiana has the 11th best red zone defense). Iowa will eventually put a couple of TDs on the board and pull away in the second half. The defense keeps Indiana in check all day.
Iowa 23 - Indiana 10